“Is this stock actually a good price right now?”
Three models, run side by side. When they disagree, you see why.
For long-term investors who do their own homework
A great company isn't always a great price.
Screen, value, and track quality businesses in one workspace. Three valuation models, every number traceable to public filings — so you know what a stock is worth before you buy.
A disciplined value-investing framework — modernized with live financial data.
Free forever · No credit card · US-listed stocks
If this sounds familiar
You know the names — Apple, Microsoft, Costco. But you still have the same questions.
Moatrics gives you a repeatable process to answer those questions — before you put your money in.
“Is it a real business, or just a hot story?”
Ten years of ROIC, debt, and growth — not one good quarter.
“I’ve bought things I didn’t really understand.”
A four-part framework you can repeat on any company.
This week's example
This is what one company looks like after it goes through the process.
A real US-listed company from our own watchlist, run end to end. A new one every week.
INTU
Intuit Inc.
- Sector
- Technology
- Price that day
- $325.15
- Market cap
- $86.89B
- Analysed
- 2026-10-18
Is it a business worth studying?
Business Model 4 / 5
Intuit operates a diversified, recurring-revenue software platform serving two large, structurally stable markets: small-business financial management (QuickBooks) and consumer tax and credit services (TurboTax, Credit Karma). The business model is built on subscription and transaction-based fees, generating highly predictable cash flows; revenue per share grew from $53.77 (2023) to $80.26 (2026), a 14.3% CAGR. The company demonstrates exceptional capital efficiency with 18.0% ROIC over the period, and remarkable free cash flow conversion—FCF per share grew from $17.91 to $32.24 (21.7% CAGR)—while maintaining fortress balance sheet strength with net debt payable in just 1.4 years. A key structural advantage lies in switching costs: once a small business or individual adopts QuickBooks, TurboTax, or Credit Karma, they rarely switch, providing durable competitive moats. However, the modest 3.2% CAGR in book value per share suggests limited retained earnings reinvestment for growth, indicating substantial capital returns to shareholders via buybacks and dividends rather than organic expansion.
- ROIC 18.0% significantly exceeds the 10% benchmark and typical 8–10% software industry median, reflecting efficient capital deployment across all operating segments over the full period.
- Free cash flow per share surged from $17.91 (2023) to $32.24 (2026), a 21.7% CAGR, demonstrating superior cash generation relative to earnings growth (24.2% EPS CAGR), indicating strong working-capital discipline and pricing power.
- Net debt payoff in 1.4 years provides exceptional financial flexibility; combined with subscription-based recurring revenue (TurboTax seasonal, QuickBooks/Mailchimp year-round) and minimal customer churn, business model predictability is reinforced by durable, recurring contracts.
Book value per share CAGR of only 3.2% (versus 24.2% EPS CAGR and 21.7% FCF CAGR) signals aggressive capital distributions and limited organic reinvestment; in a highly competitive software landscape facing regulatory scrutiny (e.g., tax-filing industry lobbying pressures) and potential margin compression from AI disruption, retained earnings may be insufficient to defend competitive moats long-term.
Moat 4 / 5
Intuit demonstrates a durable competitive moat built on multiple reinforcing advantages: switching costs (embedded workflows in QuickBooks and TurboTax), network effects (Credit Karma's financial recommendation engine and Mailchimp's marketing platform ecosystem), and brand dominance in tax preparation and SMB accounting software. The 18.0% ROIC over the past decade substantially exceeds the cost of capital, suggesting pricing power and operational efficiency that competitors cannot easily replicate; combined with revenue CAGR of 14.3% and EPS CAGR of 24.2%, the business has expanded its moat while growing. FCF generation has accelerated dramatically—from $17.91/share in 2023 to $32.24/share in 2026 (CAGR 21.7%)—indicating the moat is being monetized with increasing efficiency. Debt is minimal at 1.4 years of payoff, confirming financial strength. The primary erosion signal is modest book value growth (BV/Share CAGR of only 3.2%), suggesting capital is being returned to shareholders rather than reinvested organically; this reflects maturity in core segments (TurboTax, QuickBooks) rather than moat decay, but growth in newer adjacencies (Mailchimp, Credit Karma) will be critical to sustained pricing power over the next decade.
- ROIC of 18.0% over 10 years substantially exceeds typical cost of capital (~8–10%), evidencing durable pricing power and operational leverage in tax prep and SMB accounting software markets where Intuit holds 60%+ market share.
- Free cash flow accelerated from $17.91/share (2023) to $32.24/share (2026), CAGR 21.7%, while EPS grew 24.2% CAGR—demonstrating the moat is being monetized with increasing efficiency and reinvestment discipline.
- Net debt of only 1.4 years of payoff with 18% ROIC allows Intuit to return capital via buybacks (BV/Share CAGR 3.2% despite earnings growth) while maintaining fortress-like balance sheet; a weaker moat would require aggressive retention for defense.
Regulatory and tax-code simplification risk could erode TurboTax moat; Mailchimp and Credit Karma face intense competition and must prove they generate durable returns to justify valuation.
Management 4 / 5
Intuit demonstrates solid capital allocation discipline with an 18.0% ROIC well above its cost of capital, supported by consistent free cash flow generation that grew from $17.91 to $32.24 per share (CAGR 21.7%) over the 2023–2026 period. Management has maintained conservative leverage, with debt payable in just 1.4 years, while simultaneously funding organic growth and strategic acquisitions (notably Mailchimp integration). Earnings per share grew at a robust 24.2% CAGR, outpacing revenue growth of 14.3%, indicating strong operating leverage and margin expansion. However, book value per share grew only 3.2% annually, suggesting management has prioritized shareholder returns (likely through buybacks) over balance-sheet accumulation, a disciplined choice given the company's financial strength. The tension between exceptional EPS and earnings-quality growth (as measured by BV accretion) warrants monitoring to ensure buyback discipline does not mask softening organic profitability.
- ROIC 18.0% sustained above 10% threshold; free cash flow per share surged 79.8% from $17.91 (2023) to $32.24 (2026), demonstrating earnings quality and cash generation power.
- Debt payoff in 1.4 years with net leverage well below 3x threshold; management maintained fortress balance sheet while funding organic product development and Mailchimp acquisition synergies.
- EPS CAGR of 24.2% outpaced revenue CAGR of 14.3% over three years, indicating 11-percentage-point margin expansion; however, book value per share CAGR of only 3.2% signals aggressive capital return rather than balance-sheet growth.
Book value per share grew only 3.2% CAGR despite 24.2% EPS growth, signaling heavy reliance on buybacks to drive per-share metrics; if organic profitability stalls, the gap between accounting earnings and true intrinsic value growth may widen, masking deteriorating business quality.
Margin of Safety 2 / 5
Intuit trades at $325.15, a stark 57.8% discount to the $771.07 value-investing entry price, yet this apparent margin of safety masks a structural deterioration in capital efficiency that undermines the investment thesis. Despite strong operational metrics—ROIC of 18.0%, EPS CAGR of 24.2%, and FCF CAGR of 21.7% over three years—book value per share contracted from $73.76 (2025) to $71.07 (2026), signaling aggressive capital returns or asset write-downs that question the sustainability of earnings quality. The 57.8% discount reflects sustained market skepticism about valuation multiples and growth durability rather than a temporary sentiment swoon; the company's near-term catalysts (margin expansion, retention) must overcome persistent concerns about whether premium valuations are justified in a maturing SaaS landscape. Without evidence of reinvestment discipline or accelerating organic growth to justify historical multiples, the discount appears structural and rooted in rational repricing rather than temporary fear.
- Book value per share declined from $73.76 (2025) to $71.07 (2026), a -3.6% contraction despite $14.48→$17.09 EPS growth, signaling capital return aggressiveness or asset quality concerns outpacing book value accretion.
- FCF per share spiked to $32.24 (2026) from $22.76 (2025), a +41.6% jump, yet the 57.8% discount persists, suggesting the market doubts whether this FCF surge is sustainable or merely a one-year anomaly in a mature, capital-light SaaS business.
- ROIC of 18.0% and 1.4-year debt payoff indicate fortress-like capital strength, yet this structural strength is already priced into the $771 entry price; the 57.8% haircut implies the market no longer ascribes growth-equity multiples to a business facing SaaS saturation and regulatory headwinds (tax software complexity).
Framework verdict Needs More Research
Is the price fair?
Cap Rate $322.45
Owner earnings at a 10% capitalisation rate
Margin of Safety $350.62
Future earnings discounted back, then halved
Payback Time $771.07
Free cash flow pays you back within 8 years
Reference entry price $771.07
The highest of the three model prices.
2 of 3 models nod → Below the reference entry price
A model nods when its price sits at or above the current price.
When the three models disagree this much, that disagreement is the finding.
Four numbers that have to clear.
- ROIC ≥ 10%
Is management turning capital into repeatable returns?
ROIC 18.0% Pass - Debt ≤ 3 years of earnings
Could a downturn turn this debt into a crisis?
1.4 years of earnings Pass - Four growth rates ≥ 10%
Revenue, EPS, free cash flow and book value over the last 5 years.
3 of 4 clear Fail - Price ≤ reference entry price
Is the market offering a discount you can check yourself?
$325.15 vs. $771.07 Pass
Workflow
From Thousands of Tickers to a Short List of Conviction
A repeatable three-step process you can run on any company.
Screen
Start with quality. Filter by ROIC, debt levels, growth, and moat strength.
Analyze
Deep dive with our framework and independent valuation models.
Decide
Wait for the margin of safety. Buy with conviction. Hold for the long term.
Methodology
No black boxes. Here's exactly how we think.
The same four questions and the same three models, on every company, every time.
Four questions
Answer these before you look at the price.
- Business Model Can you explain how it makes money without hand-waving?
- Moat Has the advantage held for ten years, or just one good one?
- Management Does capital go in and come back out larger?
- Margin of Safety Is there room in the price to be wrong?
Three valuation models
Run independently, then compared.
- Cap Rate What the owner earnings are worth at a 10% capitalisation rate, counting maintenance capex only.
- Margin of Safety Future earnings growth discounted back to today — then cut in half.
- Payback Time The price at which free cash flow pays the whole purchase back inside eight years.
Four thresholds
Numbers, not opinions.
- ROIC ≥ 10% Below that, an index fund is the better home for the money.
- Debt ≤ 3 years of earnings Debt a downturn can absorb.
- Four growth rates ≥ 10% Revenue, EPS, free cash flow, book value.
- Price ≤ reference entry price The discount has to already be there.
What you get
Six things you can do by the end of today.
Not a feature list — the part of your process each one replaces.
-
Know in fifteen minutes whether a price is fair.
Triangulated Valuation -
Skip the 95% that fail before you read a word.
Quality Screener -
Get a structured deep-dive, then ask it your follow-ups.
AI Deep Analysis (Pro)AI organizes and interprets — every figure traces back to public filings. Always verify it yourself.
-
See what long-horizon investors hold — as leads, not answers.
13F Tracker -
See price against value in one list.
Watchlist -
Write down why you bought, while you still remember.
Investment Notes
Built by an investor, for investors
I invest around a day job. For years that meant updating a dozen spreadsheets by hand every quarter, fifteen browser tabs I was afraid to close, and sticky notes across the monitor.
I got tired of it, so I built the workspace I wanted: four questions, three valuation models, every number traceable back to a filing.
Moatrics is independent: nobody here earns more when you trade, and every support email is answered by someone who knows the product inside out.
— CCBEAR, founder of Moatrics
Pricing
Start free. Upgrade when you research every week.
Start free to learn the framework. Upgrade to Pro when research becomes part of your weekly routine.
Free
$0 forever
The best place to start.
- Track up to 5 companies on your watchlist
- All three core valuations: Cap Rate · Margin of Safety · Payback
- Follow the public master-investor tracker
- Educational resources to learn the framework
No credit card required. Sign up and you're in — no waiting list.
Pro
$25 /mo
billed annually · $300/yr (save $48)
Your personal investment research workstation.
- Take a company from screen to decision in one sitting — AI gathers and structures the research for you
- Master-investor perspectives on the exact stocks you're studying
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- Full screener, advanced valuations & deeper analytics
- Investment notes to capture why you bought and what you expected
- Build a decision record you can revisit — and priority support when you need it
14-day full refund
Which plan fits you?
Free is for you if…
you're learning the framework and looking at a company now and then.
Pro is for you if…
you research companies most weeks and want to spend less time gathering data and more time deciding.
Most members start on Free to learn the method, then move to Pro once they're researching regularly. No rush — upgrade only when the time it saves is worth it.
Not what you expected? Email us within 14 days of your first Pro payment and we refund it in full.
FAQ
Common Questions
If something isn't covered here, email us at service@moatrics.com.
Is Moatrics investment advice?
No. Moatrics is an educational research tool — every screen, score, and valuation is there to help you think more clearly. We're not a registered investment advisor, and every decision is yours alone.
Where does your data come from?
Financials come from established market-data providers and public filings. Every score and valuation traces back to numbers you can check yourself. Coverage today is US-listed stocks.
How does the AI fit in — can I trust it?
The AI structures the research and answers your follow-up questions, but every number it shows traces back to public filings — it's not a black box. Pro includes a generous daily allowance for AI analysis, enough to research several companies a day. It's there to speed up your thinking, not replace it.
What's the difference between Free and Pro?
Free covers the core method on a handful of companies — three valuations, a 5-stock watchlist, the public master tracker, and learning resources. Pro adds AI deep analysis and Q&A, the full screener, advanced valuations, an unlimited watchlist, and investment notes. Start on Free; upgrade when you're researching regularly.
What if I pay for Pro and it is not for me?
Email service@moatrics.com within 14 days of your first Pro payment and we refund it in full, no questions asked. You keep the free plan and your data.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. Pro is month-to-month or annual — you can cancel from your settings at any time and keep access until the end of the billing period.
Who is Moatrics for?
Patient investors who want to own a focused portfolio of wonderful companies bought at sensible prices. If you're looking for day-trading signals or short-term predictions, Moatrics is not for you.
What is Moatrics?
A research platform that helps value investors find quality companies, estimate fair value with three models, and act only when there's a margin of safety.
How do I get started?
Create a free account at app.moatrics.com/signup — it takes under a minute, with no credit card and no waiting list. Confirm your email and the free plan is yours to keep.